Két további info az AMD negyedévéről és kilátásairól. Az egyik állítólag egy Prudential analízisből való, de linket nem tudtak adni hozzá.
Idézet
HIGHLIGHTS
* We believe that AMD is in the early stages of its ASP growth story. We are forecasting AMD MPU ASPs to increase from $85 in '05 to $100 in '07 driven by: 1) increased corporate penetration, 2) increased sales of higher ASP notebook and server MPUs, and 3) richer mix of performance MPUs.
* We believe AMD only has 12% of the corporate market, and expect AMD to double its corporate SKUs in '06. We estimate that corporate MPUs sell at a 60% premium to consumer MPUs.
* After gaining 1,700 and 600 bps of share in servers and notebooks in '05, we expect AMD to gain another 700 bps and 300 bps of share by the end of ’06, respectively, driven by its dual core Opteron and Turion product cycles.
* Separately, our checks indicate that Intel is selectively cutting pricing by 30%-50%, but that it is not impacting neither AMD's share nor pricing. Our sources indicate AMD is actually raising ASPs in some high end products, and is scheduled to cut pricing in May by only 2% in some low-end desktop MPUs. We think that concerns about a "price war" from Intel are overblown.
* We continue to believe that consensus estimates for AMD are too low. We are forecasting '06 and '07 pro forma EPS of $1.77 and $2.51, which are $0.35 and $0.71 above the Street, respectively. AMD remains our top pick. Reiterate Overweight rating and $55 price target.
A másik a telefonos konferencia rövid kivonata:
Idézet
* End of this year, 90 % of all server CPUs sold will be dual core, single cores offerings will remain though
* AMD today employs three times as many R&D engineers as they did three years ago. That means today AMD employs three times more than those who developed A64
* AMD will present more information on future products and technology in their June technology analyst meeting
* AMD is not affected by Intel price cuts at all and don't expect Q2 to change that either
* Europe was the region where sales were not as good as expected
* FAB36 yields are excellent from day 1 (90 nm now)
* FAB30 was written off in 5 years, FAB36 will be in 6 years due to having a much larger production capacity that will have a longer life span
* AMD inventory is 55 days, very lean, and will remain so, except for Q3 to Q4 as Q4 sales are generally much higher
* AMD is focusing on the corporate market and growth there. Many OEMs have already significantly increased product offerings in that area
* I think I heard AMD say they "increased the dollar market share in Q1". Does that mean they lost unit market share?
Az Intel inventoryja közel 90 nap, elég penetráns különbség az 55 naphoz képest. Éppen ezért nem is tudja gyorsabban felfuttatni az új generációs processzorokat, hiszen a jelenlegi hatalmas raktárkészlettel kell valamit kezdenie.
Érdekes, hogy mindkét forrás szerint is hatástalan volt az Intel árcsökkentése. Mondjuk nem is igazán értem, hogy mit akart elérni vele az Intel, mert azt azért ők is valószínűleg látták, hogy az AMD-re gyakorlatilag semmiféle hatással nem lesz a dolog. Szerintem a raktárkészlet csökkentése volt a cél, nem pedig az AMD megtámadása. Az viszont elég érdekes, hogy az elemzők rögtön leértékelték emiatt az AMD rövidtávú kilátásait, azaz ők ebből semmit sem láttak. Mondjuk a pénzügyi elemzőkről eddig is megvolt a véleményem, ez tulajdonképpen azon már nem sokat rontott.
A júniusi technológia meetinget meg már nagyon várom. Kíváncsi vagyok, hogy mit fognak felfedni a terméktervükből.
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